Impacts of climate change on wildfires in Central Asia

Abstract

This study analyzed fire weather and fire regimes in Central Asia from 2001-2015 and projected the impacts of climate change on fire weather in the 2030s (2021-2050) and 2080s (2071-2099), which would be helpful for improving wildfire management and adapting to future climate change in the region. The study area included five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The study area could be divided into four subregions based on vegetation type: shrub (R1), grassland (R2), mountain forest (R3), and rare vegetation area (R4). We used the modified Nesterov index (MNI) to indicate the fire weather of the region. The fire season for each vegetation zone was determined with the daily MNI and burned areas. We used the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the future weather and fire weather of Central Asia. The results showed that the fire season for shrub areas (R1) was from 1 April to 30 November, for grassland (R2) was from 1 March to 30 November, and for mountain forest (R3) was from 1 April to 30 October. The daily burned areas of R1 and R2 mainly occurred in the period from June-August, while that of R3 mainly occurred in the April-June and August-October periods. Compared with the baseline (1971-2000), the mean daily maximum temperature and precipitation, in the fire seasons of study area, will increase by 14%-23% and 7%-15% in the 2030s, and 21%-37% and 11%-21% in the 2080s, respectively. The mean MNI will increase by 33%-68% in the 2030s and 63%-146% in the 2080s. The potential burned areas of will increase by 2%-8% in the 2030s and 3%-13% in the 2080s. Wildfire management needs to improve to adapt to increasing fire danger in the future.