Potential impact of global climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka

Abstract

The potential impact of climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka was evaluated. The Holdridge Life Zone Classification was used along with current climate and climate change scenarios derived from two general circulation models, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model and the Canadian Climate Centre Model, at a 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Current and future distributions of life zones were mapped with a Geographic Information System. These maps were then used to calculate the extent of the impact areas for the climate change scenarios. The current distribution pattern of forest vegetation includes tropical very dry forest (6%), tropical dry forest (56%), and tropical wet forest (38%). Results obtained using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model show an increase in tropical dry forest (8%) and decrease in tropical wet forest (2%). The Canadian Climate Centre Model scenario predicted an increase in tropical very dry forest (5%) and tropical dry forest (7%), and a decrease intropical wet forest (11%). Both models predicted a northward shift of tropical wet forest into areas currently occupied by tropical dry forest. The application of general circulation models such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model and the Canadian Climate Centre Model, as well as the Holdridge Life Zone Classification, to estimate the effect of climate change on Sri Lankan forests in this paper indicates that these methods are suitable as a tool for such investigations in Sri Lanka.