IncidentResponseSim: An agent-based simulation tool for risk management of online Fraud

Abstract

IncidentResponseSim is a multi-agent-based simulation tool supporting risk management of online financial services, by performing a risk assessment of the quality of current countermeasures, in the light of the current and emerging threat environment. In this article, we present a set of simulations using incident response trees in combination with a quantitative model for estimating the direct economic consequences. The simulations generate expected fraud, and conditional fraud value at risk, given a specific fraud scenario. Additionally, we present how different trojan strategies result in different conditional fraud value at risk, given the underlying distribution of wealth in the online channel, and different levels of daily transaction limits. Furthermore, we show how these measures can be used together with return on security investment calculations to support decisions about future security investments.