Pre-procedural risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy in elderly patients undergoing elective coronary angiography

Abstract

To establish a scoring model to predict the risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in elderly patients undergoing elective coronary angiography (CAG). A total of 1286 patients aged > 65 years who had undergone elective CAG between August 2009 and February 2013 were enrolled in this study. They were randomly (3:2) assigned to a development (n = 756) or validation dataset (n = 530). Independent predictors of CIN were identified by using logistic regression and were assigned a weighted integer, which was used to establish a score model. CIN incidence in the development set was 6.3%. The risk score model contained 3 variables (with the weighted in-teger): age > 75 years (1.5), creatinine clearance (CrCl) < 60 mL/minute (1), and congestive heart failure (CHF) (1.5). CIN incidence was 3.1%, 9.1%, and 29.0% in the low-risk group (≤ 1), moderate risk group (1 - 3), and high-risk group (≥ 3), respectively. The risk model demonstrated good prediction value in the development (c-statistic = 0.727) and validation (c-statistic = 0.695) datasets. Compared to the non-CIN group, the CIN group had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (P < 0.01). The risk score model with 3 variables, namely age > 75 years, CrCl < 60 mL/minute, and CHF, is a clinical prediction tool for CIN in elderly patients before elective CAG. CIN is one of the independent risk factors of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). (Int Heart J 2017; 58: 197-204)