Transience of spatio-temporal clusters of residential burglary is well documented in empirical observations, and could be due to finite size effects anecdotally. However a theoretical understanding has been lacking. The existing agent-based statistical models of criminal behavior for residential burglary assume deterministic-time steps for arrivals of events. To incorporate random arrivals, this article introduces a Poisson clock into the model of residential burglaries, which could set time increments as independently exponentially distributed random variables. We apply the Poisson clock into the seminal deterministic-time-step model in Short et al. (Math Models Methods Appl Sci 18:1249–1267, 2008). Introduction of the Poisson clock not only produces similar simulation output, but also brings in theoretically the mathematical framework of the Markov pure jump processes, e.g., a martingale approach. The martingale formula leads to a continuum equation that coincides with a well-known mean-field continuum limit. Moreover, the martingale formulation together with statistics quantifying the relevant pattern formation leads to a theoretical explanation of the finite size effects. Our conjecture is supported by numerical simulations.
CITATION STYLE
Wang, C., Zhang, Y., Bertozzi, A. L., & Short, M. B. (2019). A Stochastic-Statistical Residential Burglary Model with Finite Size Effects. In Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology (pp. 245–274). Springer Basel. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20297-2_8
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