Democracy and Civil War

Abstract

Does democracy have a ‘dark side’, or is civil war less likely in democracies? The findings are confusing, which is exacerbated by the fact that different aspects of civil war are mixed up in civil war studies. Moreover, defining civil war is a delicate, politically sensitive issue. Determining whether there is a civil war in a particular country is difficult, while measurements suffer from many weaknesses. Moreover, there is no clear link, and civil war is just as likely in democracies as it is in dictatorships. Democratization is a very unpredictable, dangerous process. Hybrid systems are at risk as well: the chance of civil war is high compared to other political systems. More specifically, both the strength and type of political institutions matter when explaining civil war. Finally, democracy has only limited explanatory power. Economic factors are far more significant than political factors (such as having a democratic system) when explaining the onset, duration and severity of civil war. To prevent civil war, it would make far more sense to make poorer countries richer, instead of promoting democracy. It would even be a very dangerous idea, as countries with changing levels of democracy are most vulnerable, making civil wars most likely.