Strategic Triangles: US-China-ASEAN Insecurity Histronics

Abstract

Arguably the most urgently incendiary flashpoints threatening Indo-Pacific peace lay in SCS waters. China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei variously claimed and occupied islets, reefs and cays here. Conflicting claims led to Sino-Vietnamese maritime violence in 1974, 1988 and 2014; coercion against Manila occurred in 1995 and 2012. Neutrality notwithstanding, America’s strong support for China’s rivals reinforced regional fissures along systemic-subsystemic cleavages with Sino-US pressures threatening ASEAN’s cohesion. Manila’s 2013 submission to a UNCLOS-based Arbitral Tribunal (AT) against Chinese actions precipitated fresh tensions. The AT’s July 2016 award for Manila, rejected by Beijing, provided a pivotal moment, which was transformed by President Rodrigo Duterte’s diplomatic dramatics. The other vocal claimant, Vietnam, adopted an ambiguous course as Donald Trump took office. The chapter examines recent developments through the prism of the past, offering glimpses of an uncertain future.