Temporal trend and spatial distribution of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Iranian children during 2006-2014: a mixed ecological study

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The present study investigated the spatiotemporal epidemiological status of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the most common childhood cancer, in Iran. METHODS: Using an exploratory mixed design, this ecological study examined 3,769 under-15 children with ALL recorded in the National Cancer Registry of Iran during 2006-2014. Data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, the Getis-Ord general G (GOGG) index, optimized hot spot analysis, and Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) at a significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: The average annual incidence of the disease was 2.25 per 100,000 under-15 children, and the cumulative incidence rate (CIR) was 21.31 per 100,000 under-15 children. Patients’ mean age was 5.90 years (standard deviation, 3.68), and the peak incidence was observed among 2-year to 5-year-olds. No significant difference was found in mean age between boys and girls (p=0.261). The incidence of ALL was more common during spring and summer than in other seasons. The GOGG index was 0.039 and significant (p<0.001). Hot spots were identified in south, central, and eastern Iran and cold spots in the north and west of Iran. The PCC between the CIR and latitude was negative (r=-0.507; p=0.003) but that between the CIR and longitude was positive (r=0.347; p=0.055). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of ALL in Iranian children was lower than that observed in developed countries, but showed an increasing trend. It can be argued that the incidence of ALL is due to synergistic interactions between environmental, infectious, geographical, and genetic risk factors.