Effective strategies against COVID-19 and the importance of infection sequelae

Abstract

COVID-19 is a serious threat to human health and development. The acute burden of the pandemic includes more than 18.2 million deaths worldwide, and is unprecedented in modern times. This represents only a fraction of the total burden, as it excludes infection sequelae. An effective global strategic paradigm has been missing throughout the pandemic. The ‘flattening the curve’ approach neglected the importance of infection sequelae, and being centered on healthcare capacity was conceptually contrary to a people-centered health system. In March 2022, the World Health Organization revised its pandemic approach, importantly shifting emphasis away from managing transmission and towards prevention. Despite limitations, this now recognizes the role of infection sequelae, whose impact is becoming clearer in both variety and scale. Drawing on the foundational concepts of Sun Tzu and Carl von Clausewitz, most country approaches do not qualify as strategies, but rather as operational plans. They are also largely ineffective, neglecting infection sequelae, viral evolution dangers and other parameters. The purpose of this article is to summarize the evidence on COVID-19 infection sequelae, and alongside other contextual parameters use this to motivate that infection should be prevented. This is then used to answer the question: What is an effective strategy against COVID-19?