Buffering Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones Under a Changing Climate

Abstract

The effect of atmosphere–ocean coupling on intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) under global warming was examined using a regional high-resolution three-dimensional atmosphere–ocean coupled model. A storyline event attribution approach was applied to four historical intense TCs in the western North Pacific. The results indicate that atmosphere–ocean coupling buffers TC intensification as global warming progresses. This buffering effect increased as storms traveled northward. Moreover, the effect intensified as warming progressed, because reductions in sea surface temperature induced by the storm increased as the storm strengthened in future warmer climates. The magnitude of the buffering effect depended on the storm's size and translation speed; a large, slow-moving storm had significant resilience against global warming, whereas a compact, fast-moving storm was sensitive to global warming. A high-resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled model is important for more reliable future projections of TC intensity under the changing climate.