Central European air temperature: driving force analysis and causal influence of NAO

Abstract

The identification of causality is the core issue in climate change studies. In this paper, driving force analysis and causal influence of NAO for Central European air temperature is presented using slow feature analysis and convergent cross-mapping. Results showed that the driving force of the dominate 7–8 year scale was reconstructed with central European surface air temperature (SAT), this interannual variability may be driven by large-scale climate variability modes such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) based on the previous studies. Then, the possible dynamical causal relation between NAO and SAT in central European was presented; it was indicative that the air temperature variability in Central European uncovers causal influence by NAO.