Inpatient Hospitalizations during the First Wave of COVID-19 in Portugal

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of the pandemic on inpatient hospital admissions during the first wave in Portugal. Data from hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2008 to 2017 were used to forecast inpatient hospital admissions for March to May 2020. The observed number of hospitalizations and their characteristics were compared to forecasted values. Variations were compared by hospital and region. Statistical analysis was used to investigate whether patterns of variations existed according to hospital characteristics. There were 119,315 fewer hospitalizations than expected during March to May 2020 in Portugal, which represented a 57% reduction. Non-COVID-19 hospitalizations had a higher mean length of stay and proportion of inpatient deaths than forecasted values. Differences between observed and forecasted values varied greatly among regions and hospitals. These variations were not associated with COVID-19 hospital admissions, region, forecasted number of hospitalizations, type of hospital, or occupation rate. The impact on inpatient hospital admissions for each hospital was not consistent or proportional to the expected use across Portugal, as indicated by variations between forecasted and observed values. The appropriate planning of future responses may contribute to improving the necessary balance between the level of hospital admissions for usual health needs of the population and the response to COVID-19 patients.