Time series petri net models enrichment and prediction

Abstract

Operational support as an area of process mining aims to predict the performance of individual cases and the overall business process. Although seasonal effects, delays and performance trends are well-known to exist for business processes, there is up until now no prediction model available that explicitly captures seasonality. In this paper, we introduce time series Petri net models. These models integrate the control flow perspective of Petri nets with time series prediction. Our evaluation on the basis of our prototypical implementation demonstrates the merits of this model in terms of better accuracy in the presence of time series effects.