Present status of edible oil consumption and household demand projection for Tamil Nadu (India)

Abstract

Until the 1990s the major edible oil consumed in Tamil Nadu state was peanut and sesame oil. The technological, economic and policy changes thereafter induced dynamism in consumer demand for food, including edible oils. In this study, the household demand for individual edible oils based on present consumption was assessed and forecasted for 2015 and 2020 for Tamil Nadu. Due to constraints in the secondary data published by National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the primary data was used. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was employed to estimate the income (expenditure) elasticities and in turn used to project the demand for edible oils and associated products like ghee and butter. The overall edible oil demand is expected to grow at 7.0% per annum in Tamil Nadu, with the highest growth of sunflower oil (8.7%) followed by other oils (7.8%), sesame oil (6.6%), peanut oil (6.6%) and palm oil (3.1%). The demand for total edible oil in rural Tamil Nadu increases from 3.14 lakh tonnes (2009-10) to 5.3 lakh tonnes (2020), whereas, in urban areas, it increases from 3.24 lakh tonnes to 5.45 lakh tonnes. The non-traditional oil like sunflower oil and other oils (soybean, corn, rice bran, palm oil) has made inroads in the consumption basket and will continue to dominate in the future. Hence, concerted efforts like increasing seed replacement rate, increasing the intensity of adoption of improved technology and appropriate price policy are required to increase productivity of non-traditional crops besides promoting traditional crops (peanut and sesame) to meet the growing edible oil demand in the state.Sve do devedesetih godina dvadesetog veka glavno jestivo ulje koje se koristilo u drzavi Tamil Nadu je bilo kikirikijevo i susamovo ulje. Tehnoloske, ekonomske i promene politike su posle toga dovele do promene u traznji potrosaca za hranom, ukljucujuci jestiva ulja. U ovom radu se ocenjuje trenutna traznja domacinstava za pojedinim jestivim uljima i predvidja potrosnja za period 2015. i 2020. godine za Tamil Nadu. Usled ogranicenosti sekundarnih podataka koje je objavila National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), korisceni su primarni podaci. Koriscen je Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model kako bi se procenile elasticnosti prihoda (rashoda), a samim tim je koriscen i za procenu traznje jestivih ulja i slicnih proizvoda kao sto su ghee (vrsta maslaca koji se koristi u kulinarstvu u Indiji) i maslac. Ocekuje se da ukupna traznja za jestivim uljem raste po stopi od 7% godisnje u Tamil Nadu, pri cemu bi najveci rast bio kod suncokretovog ulja (8,7%), a zatim kod drugih ulja (7,8%), susamovog ulja (6,6%), kikirikijevog ulja (6,6%) i palminog ulja (3,1%). Traznja za ukupnim jestivim uljem u ruralnom Tamil Nadu se povecava sa 3,14 105 lakh tona (2009-2010) na 5,3 105 lakh tona (2020), dok se u gradskim sredinama povecava sa 3,24 105 lakh tona na 5,45 105 lakh tona. Ulja koja nisu tradicionalna kao sto je suncokretovo ulje i druga ulja (sojino, kukuruzno, ulje pirincanih mekinja, palmino ulje) su nasla mesto u potrosackoj korpi i nastavice da dominiraju u buducnosti. Stoga, udruzeni napori kao sto su povecanje stope zamene semena, ubrzano usvajanje unapredjene tehnologije i odgovarajuce politike cena su neophodni kako bi se povecala proizvodnja netradicionalnih useva pored promovisanja tradicionalnih useva (kikiriki i susam) kako bi se zadovoljile potrebe sve vece traznje za jestivim uljima u drzavi.