The UK's changing party system: The prospects for a party realignment at Westminster

Abstract

The paper examines the main changes in the UK party system that have occurred in recent decades. It focuses on the decline of party identification and class-based voting, and the unintended consequences of decisions made by political elites. It analyses the fragmentation of contemporary UK political opinion and describes the emergence of a new set of 'political tribes' that cut across old left-right party loyalties, taking particular note of the growth of Authoritarian Populism sentiment. It concludes that a major realignment of the UK party system is already underway and that the changes set in train by past elite decisions and changing public perceptions are likely to continue. Party systems-and support for the parties that comprise them-develop and evolve in response to three broad sets of factors: electoral rules; the actions and decisions of political elites; and the political beliefs, attitudes and preferences of mass publics. The evolution of the UK's party system since 1945 reflects the tension between the strong constraining impact of electoral rules and deep-seated, long-term changes in public opinion. Declining party identification and increasing popular disillusion with Labour and the Conservatives have weakened what, for the two main governing parties, were the 'virtuous circle' effects of First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) elections. These long-term changes have stimulated movement towards a multiparty system-although, as UKIP's experience in the 2015 general election showed, FPTP can still reassert its virtuous (or in this case, vicious) circle effects. This paper reviews the factors that have underpinned the UK's changing party systems over the last six decades. It argues that, Journal of the British Academy, 5, 91-124. DOI https://doi.org/10.5871/jba/005.091 Posted 4 May 2017.