Assessment of the impact of climate risks on agriculture in the context of global warming

Abstract

Understanding the possible climate risks and potential economic losses of agribusiness in different regions is becoming a determining factor in the strategic planning of agricultural activities in the context of global warming. The purpose of this work was to assess the climate risks for agriculture in Russia. The study was conducted using techniques and tools of multivariate correlation analysis. The authors investigated the influence of deviations of the average monthly amounts of temperatures and precipitation from the average long-term values on the deviation of grain yields, using a set of data for 17 regions of the Central Federal district of Russia for the period of 2000-2019. The results showed that a smooth change in the parameters of heat and precipitation does not significantly affect the yield of grain crops. At the same time, increasing annual temperature variability and precipitation significantly reduce yields. An increase in the frequency of extreme events causes a growth in the probability of environmental and economic damage and the magnitude of climate risks. The maximum level of climate risk requires an appropriate adjustment of the agribusiness development strategy and the creation of an institution in society of fair compensation for damage caused by global warming factors.