“He’s Not One of Them!” Antiestablishment Supporters of Populist Governments in Bolivia and Ecuador

Abstract

Populist discourse is conceptually antiestablishment. Extensive research has found that political dissatisfaction is associated with populist support. However, most tests have been in cases with populist parties in opposition. This essay asks what happens to antiestablishment populist supporters once their candidate wins a national election. I argue, based on cognitive dissonance theory, that these supporters change their view of which actors constitute the political establishment so that their leader is not part of it. The hypothesis is tested with survey data from Bolivia and Ecuador collected when two populist presidents (Evo Morales and Rafael Correa) were elected. Results confirm that populist supporters dissociate the federal government from other political institutions once a populist is elected president, and that this dissociation can last for a few years. This has theoretical implications for understanding how individuals continue to support antiestablishment governments, important in a time of populist victories in several countries.