Modelagem do progresso temporal e do padrão espacial de lesões de ferrugem da folha em trigo

Abstract

Wheat leaf rust caused by Puccina triticina is an important disease affecting wheat (Triticum aestivum) worldwide. Disease symptoms are normally shown on the upper leaf surface, but they can be observed in the leaf sheaths. In this work, epidemic rate and lesion distribution were characterized for the development of a simulation model. Diseased leaves were collected at regular intervals during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, in Tamandare do Sul, RS. Two commercial wheat fields were used for sampling. A digital image was obtained for each sampled leaf. Software was used to assist counting and determining the exact location of leaf rust lesions. The quantification of the number of lesions was made on individual leaves. The data set representing the epidemic progress was adjusted to a logistic model with three parameters. A descriptive analysis indicated that the position of leaf rust lesions followed a random pattern at the beginning of the epidemic, shifting to an aggregate pattern as the epidemic advanced in time. The cubic log- polynomial model successfully predicted portions of leaf area more likely to bear lesions. Further exploration of these techniques could help the statistical modeling of host-pathogen relationships. Moreover, the model can be used to generate a useful diagrammatic scale with gradients of severity. © by the Brazilian Phytopathological Society.