A novel method for technology forecasting and developing RD strategy of building integrated photovoltaic technology industry

Abstract

Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the RD planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology and develop the RD strategy of related industries. The proposed approach comprises the following submodules. First, patent analysis is employed to transform patent documents into structured data. Second, the logistic growth model is used to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology. Third, a patent matrix map analysis is used to develop the RD strategy of the BIPV industry. Through the analysis by the logistic model, the BIPV technology is transformed from the emerging stage to the growth stage of a long-term life cycle. The other important result is created by the three-dimensional matrix for RD strategies in this paper. © 2012 Yu-Jing Chiu and Tao-Ming Ying.