Investigating the Role of Environmental Transmission in COVID-19 Dynamics: A Mathematical Model Based Study

Abstract

A mathematical model with environmental transmission has been proposed and analyzed to investigate its role in the transmission dynamics of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Two expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 have been analytically derived using the next generation matrix method. The two expressions composed of a combination of two terms related to human to human and environment to human transmissions. The value of R0 has been calculated using estimated parameters corresponding to a dataset from the UK. Sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number to the corresponding model parameters has been carried out. Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of some model parameters related to environmental transmission on the disease transmission dynamics have been carried out and the results have been demonstrated graphically.