China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Life Time Cost Modelling

Abstract

Based on the analysis on the development trend of vehicle technology, vehicle price, vehicle fuel economy and fuel supply price, the new energy vehicle (NEV) passenger car development scale is projected on different scenario with the application of life time cost model. Three scenarios are set to find electric vehicle (EV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV) de-velopment potential in future to their pessimistic and optimistic assumptions in China. The results are demonstrated: 1) NEV development needs a long time due to high initial cost for vehicle buyer; 2) EV will develop quickly under if there is quick development of battery technology; and 3) FCV can only develop in a large scale in 20 -30 years even in the optimistic scenario.