Uncertainty Assessment in Agent-Based Simulation: An Exploratory Study

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of uncertainty assessment in agent-based simulations, mainly related to land use and cover change. Almost every multiagent-based simulation review has expressed the need for statistical methods to evaluate the certainty of the results. Yet these problems continue to be underestimated and often neglected. This work aims to review how uncertainty is being portrayed in agent-based simulation and to perform an exploratory study to use statistical methods to estimate uncertainty. MASE, a Multi-Agent System for Environmental simulation, is the system under study. We first identified the most sensitive parameters using Morris One-at-a-Time sensitivity analysis. The efforts to assess agent-based simulation through statistical methods are paramount to corroborate and improve the level of confidence of the research that has been made in land use simulation.