Expected behavior

Abstract

Developers of technology face an intriguing task: they have to produce things that are designed for situations that, by definition, do not yet exist. Since the new technology is still non-existent, the way the technology is taken up in firms, organizations and households is unknown, too. Yet developers need information about the future use of technology to make strategic decisions about their products, systems and markets. How can they do so? What is their secret weapon? The answer is: instead of information about future use of technology, they use anticipations. The development of technology is embedded in a wide variety of projections and images of the future use. In this article I will investigate these projections and analyze the role of anticipations of use in the development of technology. This paper starts with a basic distinction between two types of anticipations of use. This leads to an investigation of how anticipations may become forceful in technological development. Two elements turn out to be important here: first, the roles for engineers, firms and users that follow from these anticipations, and second, the fertile ground for projections about future use. Finally, I will discuss challenges for sustainability. © 2006 Springer.