Economic valuation of buildings sustainability with uncertainty in costs and in different climate conditions

Abstract

The aim of this work is to evince the advantages of a synergic application of energy and economic analyses to orient design strategies, exploring the impacts of the territorial location in relation to energy consumptions, maintenance costs, prices and market variability. Centrality is posed on energy efficiency of buildings, in terms of energy consumption reduction and of optimal planning maintenance activities to reduce the replacement costs and to enhance the durability of components. For simulating the effects of the projects’ potential location on energy and economic input data, uncertainty is modeled as a proxy of the territorial variations in the joint energy-economic analysis. In the methodology presented, the stochastic Global Cost calculation represents the core. In turn, the Global Cost (EN 15459-1:2017) is considered the core of the Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ISO 15686: 2017, Part 5). Assuming the results of a previous step of research, in this work the Global Cost calculation is conducted considering both the running costs and the maintenance costs components, in stochastic terms. The Probability Analysis is applied for calculating the effects of uncertainty in costs and assuming different climate conditions. These lasts are represented with reference to the Italian territory, and specifically to 7978 Italian Municipalities and the related climate zones. The methodology assumes the results of a preliminary step of energy analysis, in which a massive set of dynamic energy simulations by EnergyPlus of a sample office unit is produced, by varying its location and related envelope thermal insulation levels.