Trend analysis of hydroclimatic variables in the Kamo River Basin, Japan

Abstract

Understanding long-term trends in hydrological and climatic variables is of high significance for sustainable water resource management. This study focuses on the annual and seasonal trends in precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and river discharge over the Kamo River basin from the hydrological years 1962 to 2017. Homogeneity was examined by Levene's test. The Mann-Kendall and a modified Mann-Kendall test as well as Sen's slope estimator were used to analyze significant trends (p < 0.05) in a time series with and without serial correlation and their magnitudes. The results indicate that potential evapotranspiration calculated by the Penman-Monteith equation was highly related to temperature, and significantly increased in the annual and summer series. Annual river discharge significantly decreased by 0.09 m3/s. No significant trend was found at the seasonal scale. Annual, autumn, and winter precipitation at Kumogahata station significantly increased, while no significant trend was found at Kyoto station. Precipitation was least affected by the modified Mann-Kendall test. Other variables were relatively highly autocorrelated. The modified Mann-Kendall test with a full autocorrelation structure improved the accuracy of trend analysis. Furthermore, this study provides information for decision makers to take proactive measures for sustainable water management.