GIS-based regression modeling of the extreme weather patterns in Arkansas, USA

Abstract

Background: Investigating the extreme weather patterns (EWP) in Arkansas can help policy makers and the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management in establishing polices and making informed decisions regarding hazard mitigation. Previous studies have posed a question whether local topography and landcover control EWP in Arkansas. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to characterize factors influencing EWP in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide a statistically justifiable means for improving building codes and establishing public storm shelters in disaster-prone areas in the State of Arkansas. The extreme weather events including tornadoes, derechos, and hail that have occurred during 1955–2015 are considered in this study. Results: Our GIS-based regression analysis provides statistically robust indications that explanatory variables (elevation, topographic protection, landcover, time of day, month, and mobile homes) strongly influence EWP in Arkansas, with the caveat that hazardous weather frequency is congruent to magnitude. Conclusions: Results indicate a crucial need for raising standards of building codes in high severity regions in Arkansas. Topography and landcover are directly influencing EWP, consequently they make future events a question of “when” not “where” they will reoccur.