Analysing stakeholder driven scenarios with a transboundary water planning tool for IWRM in the Jordan River Basin

Abstract

Although IWRM has become the mainstream concept for water management, its implementation in transboundary, politically tense settings, such as the Jordan River basin, is still limited. In this study we present the application of a transboundary spatially explicit water resources simulation and planning tool in support of decision making in this contentious setting. We integrated socio-economic scenarios and water management strategies resulting from a stakeholder process, thereby including socio-economic uncertainty, using the WEAP modelling software. Tool development was supported by an active transboundary dialogue between scientists and stakeholders. The tool was used to identify water scarcity effects and spatial-temporal response patterns under four regional scenarios up to the year 2050. These scenarios suggested that the positive effects of large scale water management options such as sea water desalination and the increased use of treated wastewater can be strongly limited by insufficient water transport infrastructure and/or a lack of cooperation. Respective responses to water scarcity should be pursued with the same intensity as currently the implementation of large scale supply-side options.