Network Catastrophe: Self-Organized Patterns Reveal both the Instability and the Structure of Complex Networks

Abstract

Critical events in society or biological systems can be understood as large-scale self-emergent phenomena due to deteriorating stability. We often observe peculiar patterns preceding these events, posing a question of - how to interpret the self-organized patterns to know more about the imminent crisis. We start with a very general description - of interacting population giving rise to large-scale emergent behaviors that constitute critical events. Then we pose a key question: is there a quantifiable relation between the network of interactions and the emergent patterns? Our investigation leads to a fundamental understanding to: 1. Detect the system's transition based on the principal mode of the pattern dynamics; 2. Identify its evolving structure based on the observed patterns. The main finding of this study is that while the pattern is distorted by the network of interactions, its principal mode is invariant to the distortion even when the network constantly evolves. Our analysis on real-world markets show common self-organized behavior near the critical transitions, such as housing market collapse and stock market crashes, thus detection of critical events before they are in full effect is possible.