Climate change adaptation and mitigation options for the livestock sector in the near east and North Africa

Abstract

An assessment of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on livestock sector in Near East and North Africa (NENA) was undertaken to document impacts, past evidences, hotspots of climate change, projections and vulnerability of the sector, and measures to adapt to and mitigate climate change. This was done through an in depth analysis of literature, utilization of GIS tools and experiences in the region. NENA region is one of the driest regions in the world and is vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as droughts, sea level rise, floods, and storms of dust, sand and snow. Conservative predictions show that by 2050 the temperature will increase by 1–4 °C (avg. 2.4 °C) and precipitation will reduce by 8–29 % except in isolated areas of the Arabian Peninsula. Dry season will increase by 2 months in some countries and substantially reducing the length of time that the rangelands can support grazing animals. In the region the livestock sector shares 30–60 % of the agricultural output and contributes to food security and nutrition, poverty alleviation, employment and economic development, monetary saving, social security, living insurance and manure. Demand for livestock products is increasing due to the increasing population, urbanization and income growth. Nearly all countries of the region are net importers of animal and animal products. Smallholders will continue to depend on livestock for their livelihoods in the region. In 2006, FAO estimated that the livestock production systems, from feed imports to marketed animal products, generate directly and indirectly 18 % of global GHG emissions. However, the livestock systems have also great potential to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation and mitigation measures for the region’s livestock sector are discussed. This paper advocates all concerned parties to take concrete actions to tackle the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security.