A new lung donor score to predict short and long-term survival in lung transplantation

Abstract

Background: Donor selection criteria are crucial for a successful lung transplant outcome. Our objective was to develop a new donor score to predict short- and long-term survival and validate it with five existing lung donor scores (Oto, Eurotransplant, Minnesota, Maryland-UNOS, Louisville-UNOS). Methods: All 454 adult lung transplants at our center between 1992-2015 were included to develop a new score. Discriminative ability for all scores was calculated by the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (time-dependent AUC) at 30-day, 1, 5 and 10-year survival, and their fit compared with Akaike's information criterion. For the new score, five pre-selected donor risk factors were derived: age, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, pulmonary infection, PaO2/FiO2-ratio, weighed via simplification of a multiple Cox model, and shrinkage used to avoid overfitting. The score sub-weighting resulted in a total of 17 points. Results: The existing scores showed predictive accuracy better than chance in prediction of survival of 5-year (AUC 0.58-0.60) to 10-year survival (AUC 0.58-0.64). Our new score had better discriminative ability as the existing scores with regard to 1, 5 and 10-year survival (AUC 0.59, 0.64, 0.66, respectively). Additional adjustment for recipient and surgical procedure variables improved the time-dependent AUC's slightly. For the secondary outcomes primary graft dysfunction and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome, the new score showed also a good predictive accuracy. Conclusions: The proposed Zurich Donor Score is simple, well adapted for the current urge of extended donors use, and shows higher discriminative ability compared to preexisting donor scores regarding short- to long-term survival.