A Proposed Approach towards Quantifying the Resilience of Water Systems to the Potential Climate Change in the Lali Region, Southwest Iran

Abstract

Computing the resilience of water resources, especially groundwater, has hitherto presented difficulties. This study highlights the calculation of the resilience of water resources in the small-scale Lali region, southwest Iran, to potential climate change in the base (1961–1990) and future (2021–2050) time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Lali region is eminently suitable for comparing the resilience of alluvial groundwater (Pali aquifer), karst groundwater (Bibitarkhoun spring and the observation wells W1, W2 and W3) and surface water (Taraz-Harkesh stream). The log-normal distribution of the mean annual groundwater level and discharge rate of the water resources was initially calculated. Subsequently, different conditions from extremely dry to extremely wet were assigned to the different years for every water system. Finally, the resilience values of the water systems were quantified as a number between zero and one, such that they can be explicitly compared. The Pali alluvial aquifer demonstrated the maximum resilience, i.e., 1, to the future climate change. The Taraz-Harkesh stream, which is fed by the alluvial aquifer and the Bibitarkhoun karst spring, which is the largest spring of the Lali region, depicted average resilience of 0.79 and 0.59, respectively. Regarding the karstic observation wells, W1 being located in the recharge zone had the lowest resilience (i.e., 0.52), W3 being located in the discharge zone had the most resilience (i.e., 1) and W2 being located between W1 and W3 had an intermediate resilience (i.e., 0.60) to future climate change.