Impact of changes in quality of deliveries on the vulnerability of supply chains

Abstract

The main objectives of the study are to present the vulnerability of the supply chain related to the change in the quality of the products supplied, and propose solutions to mitigate its disturbance. We use ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) time series to model a supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. We then analyze how changes in the quality of products delivered by the supplier may affect the system variables, taking into account the system constraints and the uncertain demand from customers. A quality predictor can then be introduced in the model to improve the resilience of the chain.