Societal scenarios in glowa-danube

Abstract

This chapter deals with the societal scenarios used in GLOWA Danube. The so-called societal megatrends serve as the basis for the generation of the societal scenarios within the sub-projects Economy, Farming, Household, Tourism and WaterSupply. They are based on the experience and knowledge from SinusSociovision, a German marketing company, and extrapolate potential trends based on currently observable tendencies in society. Three scenarios are described: First, a “Baseline” scenario depicts the continuation of society as it is, in the form of a business as usual scenario. The “Performance” scenario describes a world where free competition has been generally accepted, and society has become more hedonistic, market-oriented and materialistic. The scenario “Public Interest” fi nally paints a society where a general awareness of responsibility sets in. To apply these scenarios to the domain of the different sub-projects and to implement them in the running models, a specifi cation was carried through to provide parameter values on key factors. Going along with that, storylines, i.e. small narratives, were developed that ensure plausibility and relevance in each sub-project as well as consistency across the whole model.