MetaPTP: An Adaptive Meta-optimized Model for Personalized Spatial Trajectory Prediction

Abstract

Trajectory prediction is a fundamental problem for a wide spectrum of location-based applications. Existing methods can achieve inspiring results in predicting personal frequent routes conditioned on massive historical data. However, trajectory estimation may involve cold-start routes or users due to the data sparsity problem, which severely limits the performance of spatial trajectory prediction. Although meta-learning models can alleviate the cold-start problem, they simply utilize the same initialization for all tasks and thus cannot fit each user well due to users' varying travel preferences. To this end, we propose an adaptive meta-optimized model called MetaPTP for personalized spatial trajectory prediction. Specifically, it adopts a soft-clustering based method to guide the network initialization in a finer granularity, so that shared knowledge can be better transferred across users with similar travel preferences. Besides, towards model fine-tuning, an effective trajectory sampling method is introduced to generate meaningful support set, which simultaneously considers user preference and spatial trace similarities to provide task-related information for model adaptation. In addition, we design a weight generator to adaptively assign reasonable weights to trajectories in support set to avoid sub-optimal results which will occur when fine-tuning the initial network with the same weight for trajectories with different user preferences and spatial distributions. Finally, extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model.