Predicting construction litigation outcome using particle swarm optimization

Abstract

Construction claims are normally affected by a large number of complex and interrelated factors. It is highly desirable for the parties to a dispute to know with some certainty how the case would be resolved if it were taken to court. The use of artificial neural networks can be a cost-effective technique to help to predict the outcome of construction claims, on the basis of characteristics of cases and the corresponding past court decisions. In this paper, a particle swarm optimization model is adopted to train perceptrons. The approach is demonstrated to be feasible and effective by predicting the outcome of construction claims in Hong Kong in the last 10 years. The results show faster and more accurate results than its counterparts of a benching backpropagation neural network and that the PSO-based network are able to give a successful prediction rate of up to 80%. With this, the parties would be more prudent in pursuing litigation and hence the number of disputes could be reduced significantly. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.