A multi-risk model for understanding the spread of chlamydia

Abstract

Chlamydia trachomatis, CT, infection is the most frequently reported sexually transmitted infection in the United States. To better understand the recent increase in disease prevalence, and help guide in mitigation efforts, we created and analyzed a multi-risk model for the spread of chlamydia in the heterosexual community. The model incorporates the heterogeneous mixing between men and women with different number of partners and the parameters are defined to approximate the disease transmission in the 15-25 year-old New Orleans African American community. We use sensitivity analysis to assess the relative impact of different levels of screening interventions and behavior changes on the basic reproduction number. Our results quantify, and validate, the impact that reducing the probability of transmission per sexual contact, such as using prophylactic condoms, can have on CT prevalence.