Projections of Future Trends in Biogeochemical Conditions in the Northwest Atlantic Using CMIP5 Earth System Models

Abstract

We use the results from eight of the Earth System Models (ESMs) made available for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the projected changes in biogeochemical conditions over the next 50 years in the northwest Atlantic. We looked at the projected changes using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in the 100–400 m depth range over a large region and at more specific locations to assess the relevance of using these outputs to force a regional climate downscaling model of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The projected trends for dissolved oxygen (decrease), pH (decrease), and nitrate (variable although negative in general) represent a continuation of the recently observed trends in the area. For primary production, no firm conclusions can be drawn because of large differences in the trends from one model to another. The consistency of the trends near the regional model lateral boundaries leads us to conclude that the ESM trends can be used to set up future boundary conditions to evaluate regional impacts of climate change although the uncertainty of the results for the Scotian Shelf will be greater than for the Gulf of St. Lawrence.