Determining Significant Factors Affecting Vaccine Demand and Factor Relationships Using Fuzzy DEMATEL Method

Abstract

Even though deadly effects of outbreaks such as SARS, H1N1, EBOLA and COVID-19 took the attention of the community, generating 100% vaccination uptake from people who are expected to be affected by such outbreaks is almost impossible. Hence, determining the actual vaccine demand for typical viruses and reaching this population are becoming important issues to prevent from spreading such viruses like wildfire. Many countries have been forecasting vaccine demand according to birth rates. However, factors such as district-level per capita income, literacy rate, urbanization, and some other factors should also be considered for more accurate forecasts. There is another factor affecting countries’ vaccine demand; some of the vaccines that WHO recommends are included in the national immunization programs, while others are only recommended. Thus, this study first aims to explore the most significant factors that affect the demand of vaccines that are not included in national immunization campaigns then to present the cause and effect relationships among the factors using the fuzzy DEMATEL method to provide insights to managers for better vaccine demand forecast and to increase vaccine uptake. According to the analysis results, immunization related beliefs is the most important factor among others included in this research.