Validation and use of spill impact modeling for impact assessment

Abstract

SIMAP (Spill Impact Model Application Package) is Applied Science Associates' spill impact model system. The system is designed to simulate the fates and effects of spilled oils and fuels, to allow for an evaluation of the effectiveness of spill response activities, and to evaluate the probabilities of trajectories and resulting impacts. The physical fates and biological effects models in SIMAP are based on those in the CERCLA type A model for natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs), documented in French et al. (1996a). SIMAP may be used for real-time spill simulation, contingency planning, and natural resource damage and ecological risk assessments. The physical fates and biological effects models in SIMAP and the NRDA type A model were validated using data from 27 oil spills. The success of a model simulation depends on both the algorithms and the accuracy of the input data. The results of the validation, described herein, verify the model algorithms. The most important input data in determining accuracy of results are winds, currents, and biological abundances of the most affected species. Thus the model system, when applied with accurate environmental and biological data inputs, can quantitatively and objectively estimate the impacts of oil spills into aquatic systems.