Modelling risk perception and indicators of psychosocial sustainability in private households: The risk perception module in deephousehold

Abstract

In this section, we present the risk perception module for the DeepHousehold component. As part of the decision support system DANUBIA, it represents the households’ anticipation of potential long-term consequences and water-related risks due to global change. Basically, the majority of households in southern Germany are not concerned yet by major changes regarding risks related to water supply or fl oods. However, recurring events may increase stress and concern. Depending on patterns in the simulated natural and social environment (e.g. high temperature, fl oods, risk perception patterns of other agents), the agents of DeepHousehold can respond in two ways. One is behavioural (e.g. switching between habitual water use and deliberate actions; see Chaps. 41 and 42) and the other psychological (long-term stress) which, however, may impact on behaviour and weaken individuals’ health. We address the response of households to climaterelated risks using different combined climatic and societal scenarios. This risk perception module contributes to the agent-based model DeepHousehold based on empirical data from qualitative and quantitative studies, an indicator concept derived from systems theory and psychological models of the consideration of future consequences and defence mechanisms.