Analisis Peramalan Perubahan Pemanfaatan Lahan di Kota Nganjuk terkait Rencana Lokasi Interchange Jalan Tol Ngawi-Kertosono

Abstract

The study examines the effects of the Ngawi‐Kertosono toll road interchange development planning toland use change in Nganjuk as an agricultural city using Delphi method through exploration of expertopinion. The study forecasted potential development such as housing‐residential, trade‐service andindustry‐warehousing as a result from the development plan. Analysis showed that the plan renderedtwo implications. On the one hand it provided an increase in accesibility south of the toll road makingdevelopment possible, on the other hand the north of the toll road might suffer development challengesdue to loss of accessibility because the interchange was to only accommodate traffic from the south.Because of this, experts think that the north part of the toll road will suffer stagnance. All thisdemonstrate contradictory influence of development planning in the development of a region.Keywords: forecasting, regional activity, land use, toll road interchange