Model validation by statistical methods on a Monte-Carlo simulation of residential low voltage grid

Abstract

This paper presents validation of a Monte-Carlo simulation built for supporting electricity grid capacity planning. The base simulation model is developed to represent the power usages of electricity at residential low voltage grid. The simulation allows generating detailed load profiles of individual households, and also produces aggregated load profiles at transformer levels. The research is aimed at finding the probabilities of overloads that may cause faults. In this paper, statistical methods are selected and applied to validate the simulation results by comparing them with: 1. current commonly available data provided by electricity distribution operators (DNOs) of aggregated load data at transformers; 2. sampled household daily load profiles. These statistical methods for simulation validation can be referenced for other simulation-based studies especially on grid strategic planning and design. © 2012 Springer-Verlag GmbH.