Ireland’s Earthquake Election: Analysis of the Results

Abstract

The corresponding chapter in the 2007 book in this series described the election as ‘the earthquake that never happened’. Change in 2011, in contrast, was truly seismic. Fianna Fáil suffered a negative tsunami of votes that has few parallels among governing parties anywhere, while Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin all achieved record performances. The left as a whole achieved its highest ever level of support. There are strong elements of continuity amidst the upheaval, as we shall see, but by any standards this was an extraordinary election. In the next chapter Michael Marsh and Kevin Cunningham assess the evidence as to why the voters behaved as they did, and in Chapter 13 Peter Mair places the result in a comparative context and considers the implications for the party system. In this chapter we will discuss the results themselves in detail, identifying patterns in party gains and losses, asking why the conversion of votes into seats produced the highest level of disproportionality ever, and discussing the background of the members of the 31st Dáil.