The pattern and trend of covid-19 spread in the eastern mediterranean region: Curve-fitting models estimation

Abstract

Introduction: this study aimed to use the Curve Estimation Procedure to assess the pattern and trend of COVID-19 spread in the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by finding the model best fit for the observed COVID-19 data in each country between 20 February 2020-21 April 2020. Methods: the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, recovered cases, and during the period 20 February 2020-21 April 2020 in 21 countries in EMR were extracted from the WHO situation reports. The Curve Estimation procedure was used to produce different curve estimation regression models for the observed data in each country. Results: during this observed period, the total number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths in the region were 138673, 71343, and 6291, respectively. The overall fatality rate in the region was 4.5%. The quadratic model and the cubic model follows the observed data points fairly well during the observed time period in five and nine countries, respectively. The exponential model (Y = b0 * (e**(b1 * t))), the growth model (Y = e**(b0 + (b1 * t))), and the compound model (Y = b0 * (b1**t)) were the best fit for data during the observed time period in two, three, and two countries, respectively. Conclusion: the pattern of COVID-19 spread differed between countries in the EMR. This might reflect the variations in testing and implementation of public health measures. The best curve-fitting model was demonstrated for each country and it can be used for very short-term predictions.