Building back better: Modeling decentralized recovery in sociotechnical systems using strategic network dynamics

Abstract

The ability of sociotechnical systems to recover from disruptions through decentralized, bottom-up processes is a crucial element of their overall resilience, but it is also among the most overlooked in resilience research. This paper proposes a computational framework leveraging dynamic multi-agent networks to conceptualize, model, and quantify multi-agent, decentralized recovery process building upon strategic network formation methods. This innovative approach addresses limitations in conventional strategic network formation models by accounting for the fluidity of structural shifts induced by the strategic behaviors of individual agents, and by acknowledging the inherent heterogeneity within agent populations. The central objective of this study is to highlight the critical role of bottom-up recovery and present a systematic, adaptable framework for modeling these processes in diverse real-world scenarios. We achieve this through four key elements: modeling post-disruption responses, exploring their interdependencies, accommodating multiple equilibria, and generating metrics for scenario comparison and forecasting. Our dynamic strategic network formation model offers valuable insights into crucial trade-offs in decentralized recovery processes and facilitates the integration of both bottom-up and top-down resilience strategies. Furthermore, it could serve as a predictive tool informing initial network architectural decisions by estimating likely post-disruption equilibrium states based on the initial network structure. Ultimately, this study provides a robust platform for analyzing network efficiency and resilience trade-offs, setting the stage for more informed decision-making in complex sociotechnical systems.