Movement and risk perception: evidence from spatial analysis of mobile phone-based mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown, Nigeria

Abstract

The emergence of COVID-19 across the globe prompted many countries to institute total lockdown or other models of mobility restrictions to mitigate the spread of the disease. On March 29th, Nigeria instituted a nationwide lockdown. It is pertinent to understand the pattern created by this lockdown. This could offer insights into how people perceive the hazard and the level of compliance across the States in Nigeria. Mobile phone-based mobility data and the number of new cases from the beginning to the end of the lockdown were utilised. The study examines space-time trends across different place categories at the state level. Place categories witnessed mobility reduction as high as 56%, 57%, 65%, 75%, 38% for retail and recreation (RtRc), Grocery and Pharmacy (GrPh), Park, and Transport Hubs (Trst) respectively. Most States recorded mobility uptrend towards workplace, retail and recreational areas. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) identified two dimensions from the Space-time trends. The first dimension (D1) accounted for 66% of the variance. Examination of the Object Scores from the MCA showed that there are two classes–two risk perception groups. The pattern of mobility recorded shows that there is a variation in mobility restriction compliance across the States. The trend groupings identified captured an aspect of risk perception within each State. Thus, pointing to difference in levels of risk acceptance. With the level of misinformation currently being experienced worldwide, concerted efforts should be made on improving risk perception to prevent the re-emergence of the disease.