Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce: The Netherlands, 1830-1990

Abstract

This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary. Revised text of a paper presented at the seminar "The Role of the State and of Public Opinion in Sexual Attitudes and Demographic Behaviour since the 18th Century," 17th International Congress of Historical Sciences/ Commission Internationale de Démographie Historique, held in Madrid, August 31-September 1, 1990. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics. © 1993 Population Association of America.