Chinese Re-Examinations of Russia? The Strategic Partnership in the Wake of Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Abstract

This article asks whether Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted a reevaluation within the Chinese expert community on China’s strategic partnership with Russia. This article examines how Chinese experts and academics assess the impact of the war on the partnership and Russia’s future role for China with regard to: security and military affairs; economy and technology; and global governance and regional interaction. Chinese analysts recognize that the war has put China in a difficult situation. Several voices express caution and calls to avoid becoming too closely associated with Moscow are prevalent, not least as Chinese experts view China and Russia diverging in the future on issues concerning the global order. Moreover, Russia’s development prospects are considered dim, which in turn affects the potential for concrete cooperation with China. Chinese assessments advocate for selective engagement with Russia, largely on Chinese terms as the balance of power continues to shift in China’s favor. Nonetheless, this article finds that the Chinese expert community overall assesses that the basic tenet for maintaining the strategic partnership remains unchanged. Crucially, under current US global dominance, Russia is considered a key partner to jointly counter-balance American global power and regional influence.