Climate change multi-model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal

Abstract

Climate change projections for spatial-temporal distributions of temperatures in Portugal are analysed using a 13-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario for 2041-2070). Bias corrections are carried out using an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) and equally-weighted ensemble statistics are discussed. Clear shifts toward higher future seasonal mean temperatures, in central tendency and also in both tails of the distributions, are found (2-4 °C), particularly for summer and autumn maximum temperatures. Furthermore, frequencies of occurrence of daily extremes are projected to increase, particularly in summer maximum temperatures over inland Portugal. Wintertime changes are weaker than in other seasons.