Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network

Abstract

Background: Examining past trends and predicting the future helps policymakers to design effective interventions to deal with myocardial infarction (MI) with a clear understanding of the current and future situation. The aim of this study was to estimate the death rate due to MI in Iran by artificial neural network (ANN). Methods: In this ecological study, the prevalence of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia over 200, hypertension, overweight and obesity were estimated for the years 2017–2025. ANN and Linear regression model were used. Also, Specialists were also asked to predict the death rate due to MI by considering the conditions of 3 conditions (optimistic, pessimistic, and probable), and the predicted process was compared with the modeling process. Results: Death rate due to MI in Iran is expected to decrease on average, while there will be a significant decrease in the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia 1.031 (− 24.81, 26.88). Also, the trend of diabetes 10.48 (111.45, − 132.42), blood pressure − 110.48 (− 174.04, − 46.91) and obesity and overweight − 35.84 (− 18.66, − 5.02) are slowly increasing. MI death rate in Iran is higher in men but is decreasing on average. Experts' forecasts are different and have predicted a completely upward trend. Conclusion: The trend predicted by the modeling shows that the death rate due to MI will decrease in the future with a low slope. Improving the infrastructure for providing preventive services to reduce the risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the community is one of the priority measures in the current situation.